Markets Index
Bitcoin, the S&P 500 and US growth on one 0–100 PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one. scale. 50 is a balanced bull/bearAbove 50, more money is on the price going up; below 50, on it going down. book.
Markets price 2.4% growth for 2026. Q4 2026 is the soft spot at 1.4%.
US GDP INDEX
58.3
▼ 2.5 24h · 50 = growth at potential
INDEX HISTORY
Growth at or above potential
50
Oct 21Oct 25Now
Hourly headline sentiment. Range Oct 21 to today: 55.9 to 61.5.
EXPECTED GROWTH BY PERIOD
Quarters 1.4–3.0%, years 2.3–2.5%
Open a period: Q4 2026, the weakest quarterAll 16 periods% growth implied by GDP contracts, folded per period. A market reading of expectations, not a GDP forecast.
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UNDERLYING MARKETS
The contracts behind it
235CONTRACTS
4EXCHANGES
16PERIODS
2.4%IMPLIED 2026 GROWTH