Climate & Weather
Global warming records and US city heat, read off prediction markets. Warming is a 0–100 PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one.; city heat is in degrees.
Near its high since Sep 12, after a dip to 40 on Oct 11.
GLOBAL WARMING · 0–100
84.1
▲ 3.3 since Sep 12 · 50 = a normal year
50 contracts · 5 exchanges · 7 questions · $11.1k traded / 24h
ONE STRIPE PER DAY · OLDEST ON THE LEFT
Low of 40.0 on Oct 11, high of 85.3 on Oct 25
Sep 12Sep 27Oct 12Oct 27
40.0coolerhotter85.3
The darker the red, the more traders were paying for a record-hot year.
✦ ASK ABOUT THIS INDEX
What's driving the Global Warming index?7 QUESTIONS · TAP ONE FOR EVERY CONTRACT
What’s being priced
RECORD-HEAT CONTRACTS · 0–100, 50 = NORMAL
Hottest year on record5 exchanges · 8 contracts · $2.3k / 24h84Hottest month ever1 exchange · 1 contract · $7.8k / 24h83
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY · °F, NOT ON THE 0–100 SCALE
+2.3°FGlobal temperature anomaly · 2026Expected 2026 global temperature anomaly. Only ForecastEx prices it.