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5 Contracts$28.1k 24h vol1 Contracts$2.7k 24h vol10 Contracts$0 24h vol10 Contracts$80 24h vol7 Contracts$160 24h vol8 Contracts$0 24h vol6 Contracts$236 24h vol
Climate & Weather
Market-implied climate & weather signals — global-warming records and US city heat, folded across the exchanges pricing them. Higher = hotter.
79.3
PMIWhat PMI meansPMI is the index's own 0–100 score — NOT the probability of a market's wording. Every contract is oriented to the index's theme, so a “below / no / peace” market shows a HIGH PMI when that outcome is unlikely. 100 = markets fully back the index's direction, 50 = balanced, 0 = the opposite.
CoolerHotter
+2.3°F
Implied 2026 Global Anomaly · 10 contracts
152
Component Contracts
5
+1
+1Prediction Market Exchanges
By question
Each question folds every exchange's contracts on it into one market-implied reading — a 0–100 PMI, or an expected °F anomaly. Click a question to drill into its reading, trend and backing contracts.
79.3PMI
Hottest year on record
Question5 Contracts$28.1k 24h vol17.0PMI
Hottest month ever
Question1 Contracts$2.7k 24h vol2.3°F
Global temperature anomaly · 2026 (°F)
Question10 Contracts$0 24h vol2.3°F
Global temperature anomaly · 2027 (°F)
Question10 Contracts$80 24h vol1.6°F
Global temperature anomaly · 2028 (°F)
Question7 Contracts$160 24h vol2.5°F
Global temperature anomaly · 2035 (°F)
Question8 Contracts$0 24h vol2.3°F
Monthly temperature anomaly (°F)
Question6 Contracts$236 24h vol