++++
1 Contracts$4.1k 24h vol1 Contracts$2.2k 24h vol
1 Contracts$2.0k 24h vol1 Contracts$22.6k 24h vol9 Contracts$418.5k 24h vol8 Contracts$112.9k 24h vol
23 Contracts$428.7k 24h vol7 Contracts$9.2k 24h vol2 Contracts$4.0k 24h vol31 Contracts$61.7k 24h vol24 Contracts$73.5k 24h vol1 Contracts$70 24h vol38 Contracts$974.4k 24h vol2 Contracts$9.9k 24h vol2 Contracts$253 24h vol1 Contracts$1.3k 24h vol18 Contracts$149.5k 24h vol3 Contracts$2.7k 24h vol1 Contracts$556 24h vol2 Contracts$1.5k 24h vol15 Contracts$230.5k 24h vol3 Contracts$2.0k 24h vol4 Contracts$1.4k 24h vol3 Contracts$96 24h vol2 Contracts$232 24h vol10 Contracts$242.9k 24h vol1 Contracts$1.8k 24h vol1 Contracts$157 24h vol38 Contracts$172.6k 24h vol1 Contracts$2.1k 24h vol4 Contracts$24.5k 24h vol2 Contracts$6.7k 24h vol1 Contracts$15.0k 24h vol1 Contracts$117 24h vol8 Contracts$76.6k 24h vol2 Contracts$2.7k 24h vol4 Contracts$16.2k 24h vol1 Contracts$64 24h vol3 Contracts$43 24h vol
Markets Index
Where the money questions trade. Bitcoin, the S&P 500 and US growth expectations are each read off real-money prediction markets — strike ladders, range bins and growth contracts — on one shared 0–100 scale: 50 = a balanced book, above 50 = bulls or optimism paying up, below 50 = bears or recession fear in control.
BTC Bull/Bear
Directional sentiment for Bitcoin, read off real-money price markets across kalshi, polymarket and forecastex: above/below strike ladders, range bins and up-or-down books, direction-signed and relevancy-weighted so 50 = a balanced book, above 50 = bulls paying up, below 50 = bears in control.
LIVE · 39 QUESTIONS · as of Sep 11, 02:10 UTC
25.6
PMIWhat PMI meansPMI is the index's own 0–100 score — NOT the probability of a market's wording. Every contract is oriented to the index's theme, so a “below / no / peace” market shows a HIGH PMI when that outcome is unlikely. 100 = markets fully back the index's direction, 50 = balanced, 0 = the opposite.
BearishBullish
280
Component Contracts
4
Prediction Market Exchanges
39
Questions
Snapshot window · Δ shown vs. 14 days ago
Markets Temperature · bull/bear · 0–100Bearish
25.6
0Deep bear25Bearish50Neutral75Bullish100Euphoria
Sub-Index Composition
Monthly average 7.3%Price range 15.2%Above a price level 52.7%Below a price level 16.6%Other BTC markets 8.2%
By Question · Market-Implied · spot ≈ $76,768
Monthly average
$50k–$97.5k · closes Oct 1
54.5
— (14d)
Price range
$22.5k–$147.5k · closes Sep 11–Jan 1
14.6
▼ -2.6 (14d)
Above a price level
$50k–$500k · closes Sep 11–Jan 1
28.5
▲ +0.2 (14d)
Below a price level
$15k–$80k · closes Sep 11–Jan 1
76.7
▲ +0.5 (14d)
Other BTC markets
$70k–$88k · closes Sep 11–16
49.9
— (14d)
Holdings by Question
All 280 contracts, grouped by the underlying question they resolve on. Each group's cards are its strikes and outcomes — click a question to drill in.
🔍
99.0PMI
BTC above by Sep 25, 2026
Question1 Contracts$4.1k 24h vol99.0PMI
BTC above by Oct 9, 2026
Question1 Contracts$2.2k 24h vol95.9PMI
BTC below on Sep 16, 2026
Question1 Contracts$2.0k 24h vol83.0PMI
Will BTC hit $X before $X by Dec 31, 2026
Question1 Contracts$22.6k 24h vol77.5PMI
BTC below by Sep 30, 2026
Question9 Contracts$418.5k 24h vol75.5PMI
BTC below on Sep 10, 2026
Question8 Contracts$112.9k 24h vol74.0PMI
BTC below by Dec 31, 2026
Question23 Contracts$428.7k 24h vol68.1PMI
BTC price on Sep 12, 2026
Question7 Contracts$9.2k 24h vol63.5PMI
BTC above by Oct 2, 2026
Question2 Contracts$4.0k 24h vol62.7PMI
BTC price on Sep 11, 2026
Question31 Contracts$61.7k 24h vol57.0PMI
BTC price on Jan 1, 2027
Question24 Contracts$73.5k 24h vol56.0PMI
BTC above by Dec 11, 2026
Question1 Contracts$70 24h vol52.9PMI
BTC above on Sep 11, 2026
Question38 Contracts$974.4k 24h vol52.0PMI
BTC above by Sep 18, 2026
Question2 Contracts$9.9k 24h vol52.0PMI
BTC above by Dec 31, 2027
Question2 Contracts$253 24h vol49.0PMI
BTC above by Nov 13, 2026
Question1 Contracts$1.3k 24h vol47.6PMI
BTC price on Sep 30, 2026
Question18 Contracts$149.5k 24h vol47.4PMI
BTC above on Sep 14, 2026
Question3 Contracts$2.7k 24h vol43.0PMI
BTC above by Oct 16, 2026
Question1 Contracts$556 24h vol39.0PMI
BTC above by Sep 30, 2027
Question2 Contracts$1.5k 24h vol37.8PMI
What Price Will Bitcoin Hit September 7 13 2026
Question15 Contracts$230.5k 24h vol35.7PMI
BTC above on Sep 16, 2026
Question3 Contracts$2.0k 24h vol35.0PMI
BTC price on Sep 13, 2026
Question4 Contracts$1.4k 24h vol32.0PMI
BTC price on Sep 14, 2026
Question3 Contracts$96 24h vol25.5PMI
BTC above by Mar 31, 2027
Question2 Contracts$232 24h vol17.6PMI
BTC above by Sep 30, 2026
Question10 Contracts$242.9k 24h vol14.0PMI
BTC above by Dec 1, 2026
Question1 Contracts$1.8k 24h vol13.0PMI
BTC above by Jun 30, 2027
Question1 Contracts$157 24h vol10.7PMI
BTC above by Dec 31, 2026
Question38 Contracts$172.6k 24h vol10.0PMI
BTC above by Nov 1, 2026
Question1 Contracts$2.1k 24h vol7.6PMI
BTC above by Jan 1, 2027
Question4 Contracts$24.5k 24h vol7.0PMI
BTC above on Sep 15, 2026
Question2 Contracts$6.7k 24h vol3.0PMI
BTC above by Oct 1, 2026
Question1 Contracts$15.0k 24h vol1.0PMI
BTC above by Sep 11, 2026
Question1 Contracts$117 24h vol0.9PMI
BTC above on Sep 10, 2026
Question8 Contracts$76.6k 24h vol0.3PMI
BTC above on Sep 12, 2026
Question2 Contracts$2.7k 24h vol0.0PMI
BTC price by Jan 1, 2027
Question4 Contracts$16.2k 24h vol0.0PMI
BTC price on Sep 16, 2026
Question1 Contracts$64 24h vol0.0PMI
BTC price on Sep 15, 2026
Question3 Contracts$43 24h vol