US GDP growth · Q4 2026
Every contract for this period, folded into one implied growth rate and a 0–100 PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one.. 50 is growth at potential.
GROWTH SENTIMENT · 50 = NEUTRAL
37.5Below potential · ▼ 0.4 30d
WEAK50STRONG
30-DAY RANGE
30d low 37.430d high 39.1
1.4%IMPLIED GROWTH
2.0%POTENTIAL
PMI HOLDINGS · STRIKE ORDER
The growth ladder
17 contracts across ForecastEx, Kalshi, ordered by the growth threshold each one references. Together they imply 1.4% growth for Q4 2026, below the 2.0% potential.
CONTRACTSTRIKEPMI
Will real GDP increase by more than 4.0% in Q4 2026? - Above 4.0%Kalshi ↗ · $0 / 24h4.0%13%Will real GDP increase by more than 3.5% in Q4 2026? - Above 3.5%Kalshi ↗ · $0 / 24h3.5%21%Will real GDP increase by more than 3.0% in Q4 2026? - Above 3.0%Kalshi ↗ · $0 / 24h3.0%31%Will real GDP increase by more than 2.5% in Q4 2026? - Above 2.5%Kalshi ↗ · $0 / 24h2.5%46%Will real GDP increase by more than 2.0% in Q4 2026? - Above 2.0%Kalshi ↗ · $79 / 24h2.0%61%Will the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceed 1.5% in Q4 2026?ForecastEx ↗ · $0 / 24h1.5%55%Will real GDP increase by more than 1.5% in Q4 2026? - Above 1.5%Kalshi ↗ · $0 / 24h1.5%63%Will real GDP increase by more than 1.0% in Q4 2026? - Above 1.0%Kalshi ↗ · $0 / 24h1.0%74%Will the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceed 1% in Q4 2026?ForecastEx ↗ · $0 / 24h1.0%59%Will real GDP increase by more than 0.5% in Q4 2026? - Above 0.5%Kalshi ↗ · $0 / 24h0.5%91%Will the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceed 0.5% in Q4 2026?ForecastEx ↗ · $10 / 24h0.5%1%Will real GDP increase by more than 0.0% in Q4 2026? - Above 0.0%Kalshi ↗ · $0 / 24h0.0%94%Will the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceed -0.5% in Q4 2026?ForecastEx ↗ · $0 / 24h-0.5%87%Will the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceed -1.5% in Q4 2026?ForecastEx ↗ · $0 / 24h-1.5%89%Will the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceed -2.5% in Q4 2026?ForecastEx ↗ · $0 / 24h-2.5%90%Will the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceed -3.5% in Q4 2026?ForecastEx ↗ · $0 / 24h-3.5%91%Will the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceed -4.5% in Q4 2026?ForecastEx ↗ · $0 / 24h-4.5%94%