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Markets Index

Where the money questions trade. Bitcoin, the S&P 500 and US growth expectations are each read off real-money prediction markets — strike ladders, range bins and growth contracts — on one shared 0–100 scale: 50 = a balanced book, above 50 = bulls or optimism paying up, below 50 = bears or recession fear in control.

S&P 500 Bull/Bear

Directional sentiment for the S&P 500, read off real-money index-level markets across kalshi, polymarket and forecastex: above/below strike ladders, range bins and up-or-down books, direction-signed and relevancy-weighted so 50 = a balanced book, above 50 = probability mass leans bullish, below 50 = bears in control. Strike-aware moneyness normalisation is off for S&P (bare index-point strikes), so read the time series as a relative gauge rather than an absolute level.

LIVE · 15 QUESTIONS · as of Sep 11, 02:12 UTC
47.0
PMIWhat PMI meansPMI is the index's own 0–100 score — NOT the probability of a market's wording. Every contract is oriented to the index's theme, so a “below / no / peace” market shows a HIGH PMI when that outcome is unlikely. 100 = markets fully back the index's direction, 50 = balanced, 0 = the opposite.
BearishBullish
102
Component Contracts
3KalshiPolymarketForecastEx
Prediction Market Exchanges
15
Questions
Snapshot window · Δ shown vs. 14 days ago
Markets Temperature  · bull/bear · 0–100Neutral
47.0
0Deep bear25Bearish50Neutral75Bullish100Euphoria
Sub-Index Composition
Intraday direction 1.7%Monthly average 0.4%Price range 26.4%Above a price level 64.6%Other S&P 500 markets 6.9%
By Question · Market-Implied · spot ≈ $7,592
Intraday direction
closes Sep 11
50.0
— (14d)
Monthly average
closes Jul 1
82.0
▼ -1.0 (14d)
Price range
$6.1k–$8.3k · closes Sep 11–Dec 31
50.0
• 0.0 (14d)
Above a price level
$700–$10k · closes Sep 11–Dec 31
45.1
▼ -8.9 (14d)
Other S&P 500 markets
$6k–$7k · closes Sep 30–Jan 1
50.0
• 0.0 (14d)

Holdings by Question

All 102 contracts, grouped by the underlying question they resolve on. Each group's cards are its strikes and outcomes — click a question to drill in.

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82.0PMI

Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2

Question
Kalshi1 Contracts$125 24h vol
66.5PMI

S&P 500 above on Sep 11, 2026

Question
Polymarket4 Contracts$983 24h vol
63.6PMI

S&P 500 above by Dec 31, 2026

Question
Polymarket9 Contracts$9.4k 24h vol
53.6PMI

S&P 500 price on Sep 11, 2026

Question
Kalshi13 Contracts$269 24h vol
49.4PMI

S&P 500 above on Dec 31, 2026

Question
Kalshi9 Contracts$22.8k 24h vol
49.0PMI

S&P 500 price on Dec 31, 2026

Question
Kalshi11 Contracts$78.8k 24h vol
46.0PMI

S&P 500 above on Dec 31, 2027

Question
Kalshi1 Contracts$4 24h vol
45.1PMI

S&P 500 above by Jan 1, 2027

Question
Kalshi8 Contracts$12.6k 24h vol
41.6PMI

S&P 500 above by Sep 30, 2026

Question
Polymarket13 Contracts$8.3k 24h vol
39.1PMI

Will Spy Hit Week Of September 7 2026

Question
Polymarket14 Contracts$9.0k 24h vol
39.0PMI

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $X before Oct 1, 2026

Question
Kalshi3 Contracts$266 24h vol
16.0PMI

S&P 500 above on Sep 30, 2026

Question
ForecastEx1 Contracts$1.0k 24h vol
9.0PMI

S&P 500 above on Sep 10, 2026

Question
ForecastEx1 Contracts$16 24h vol
8.0PMI

S&P 500 price on Dec 31, 2027

Question
Kalshi2 Contracts$22 24h vol
0.0PMI

S&P 500 price by Dec 31, 2026

Question
Polymarket3 Contracts$25 24h vol