US GDP growth · 2026
Every contract for this period, folded into one implied growth rate and a 0–100 PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one.. 50 is growth at potential.
GROWTH SENTIMENT · 50 = NEUTRAL
56.8At or above potential · ▲ 1.0 30d
WEAK50STRONG
30-DAY RANGE
30d low 54.930d high 56.9
2.3%IMPLIED GROWTH
2.0%POTENTIAL
PMI HOLDINGS · STRIKE ORDER
The growth ladder
23 contracts across Kalshi, Manifold, Polymarket, ordered by the growth threshold each one references. Together they imply 2.3% growth for 2026, at or above the 2.0% potential.
CONTRACTSTRIKEPMI
GDP growth in 2026? - 6.1% or AboveKalshi ↗ · $0 / 24h6.6%0%GDP growth in 2026? - 5.6% to 6.0%Kalshi ↗ · $0 / 24h5.8%0%GDP growth in 2026? - 5.1% to 5.5%Kalshi ↗ · $0 / 24h5.3%0%GDP growth in 2026? - 4.6% to 5.0%Kalshi ↗ · $1.2k / 24h4.8%2%GDP growth in 2026? - 4.1% to 4.5%Kalshi ↗ · $0 / 24h4.3%1%GDP growth in 2026? - 3.6% to 4.0%Kalshi ↗ · $0 / 24h3.8%0%GDP growth in 2026? - 3.1% to 3.5%Kalshi ↗ · $0 / 24h3.3%5%Real GDP will grow by less than 3.5% in the US in 2026Manifold ◦ ↗ · $2.9k / 24h3.0%93%Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?Polymarket ↗ · $0 / 24h3.0%41%GDP growth in 2026? - 2.6% to 3.0%Kalshi ↗ · $237 / 24h2.8%2%GDP growth in 2026? - 2.1% to 2.5%Kalshi ↗ · $2.3k / 24h2.3%70%Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?Polymarket ↗ · $0 / 24h2.3%49%GDP growth in 2026? - 1.6% to 2.0%Kalshi ↗ · $3.5k / 24h1.8%14%Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?Polymarket ↗ · $17 / 24h1.8%2%GDP growth in 2026? - 1.1% to 1.5%Kalshi ↗ · $4.4k / 24h1.3%1%Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?Polymarket ↗ · $0 / 24h1.3%0%GDP growth in 2026? - 0.6% to 1.0%Kalshi ↗ · $0 / 24h0.8%1%Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?Polymarket ↗ · $0 / 24h0.8%0%GDP growth in 2026? - 0.1% to 0.5%Kalshi ↗ · $0 / 24h0.3%1%Will US GDP growth in 2026 be less than 0.5%?Polymarket ↗ · $0 / 24h0.0%0%If Democrats win the House in 2026, will U.S. real GDP shrink in any quarter of 2027?Manifold ◦ ↗ · $2 / 24h-0.5%28%If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will U.S. real GDP shrink in any quarter of 2027?Manifold ◦ ↗ · $50 / 24h-0.5%27%GDP growth in 2026? - 0.0% or BelowKalshi ↗ · $0 / 24h-0.5%1%