UT-04 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
94.9
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
94.9enters as 94.9
Democrats win
5.1enters as 100 − 5.1 = 94.9
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does UT-04 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 8
Sorted by weight
Will the Republican Party win the UT-04 House seat?95.2Will Democratic win the House race for UT-04? - Jonny Larsen7.0UT-04 General Election — Jonathan Larsen4.0UT-04 General Election — Mike Kennedy96.0Will Republican win the House race for UT-04? - Mike Kennedy95.5Will Mike Kennedy win the Utah 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?88.0
Show all 8 contracts
Will Jonathan Larsen win the Utah 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?11.0Will the Democratic Party win the UT-04 House seat?4.0
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 94.9 · rows open on the exchange