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2026 Balance of Power Index
Which party will hold the Senate, the House and the governorships after November 3, as prediction markets price it. Each number is the chance Republicans win control.
Democrats are favored to hold a majority of governorships.
Chance of holding most governorships
Democrats
65%
Republicans
25%INDEX
26 = MAJORITY OF 50
23
Exp. GOP seats
26
Needed
36
Races this year
36 races · as of Oct 27, 15:58 UTC
Every governor race in 2026
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SEAT · HELD BY · PROJECTIONPMI14DVOL
Georgia ›GA · held R · Lean D38.5−15.9$97KTexas ›TX · held R · Lean R67.0−13.3$704KNevada ›NV · held R · Lean D27.1−20.7$301KKansas ›KS · held D · Lean R73.3−1.7$15KPMI is the chance Republicans win the race, 0–100. 14D is the change over two weeks. Tap any race for its contracts.
Seat counts are what markets project across 8 exchanges. Methodology