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The Global War Index
Armed-conflict risk priced from live prediction-market contracts. Every country carries a PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one., rolled up by region into one world reading.
LIVE$674K TRADED / 24H·285 CONTRACTS·4 EXCHANGES·36 COUNTRIES·5 REGIONS·AS OF OCT 27, 16:05 UTC
9.1World reading · calm risk
▼ 0.8 24h · ▼ 0.3 7 days
▼ 0.8 24h · ▼ 0.3 7 days
✦ MICAH BRIEF · WORLDUPDATED 16:05 UTC
Global risk is calm. Traders priced Ukraine up 9.7 points this week. 5 countries priced higher, 5 lower.
COLOR = PMI · GRAY = NO MARKET
PMI 0–100
015304560
No market — a coverage gap, not peace
By region · GDP/population-weighted
Regions ranked by PMI
REGION · TAP TO OPENPMI24H7D
Middle East ›14 of 16 priced · $534K / 24h29.8−3.0−5.0Asia ›9 of 30 priced · $13K / 24h9.0+0.9+1.4Americas ›5 of 35 priced · $271K / 24h8.8+1.0+0.6Europe ›6 of 52 priced · $102K / 24h8.1−3.4−1.1Africa ›2 of 53 priced · $50 / 24h1.9——A region is the GDP/population-weighted average of its countries; countries with no market count as zero. Red = more risk priced, green = less.
Contracts to watch · WORLD
Where the money is
QUESTIONYES24H VOL
Will Israel and Iran maintain a ceasefire by November 1st?Polymarket · Iran · 2 contracts95%$166KWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Polymarket · Iran18%$114KMilitary action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?Polymarket · Saudi Arabia53%$74KU.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?Manifold ◦ · United States8%Ṁ40KNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Polymarket · Russia16%$30KWill the US and Iran achieve a lasting resolution?Polymarket · Iran · 2 contracts46%$26KAll 232 questionsA question folds every contract that asks it, across exchanges. 24h vol = real money traded today. ◦ = play money, not counted.