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The Global War Index — by country

Market-implied armed-conflict heat per country, rolled up by region and to a GDP/population-weighted world score, from live prediction-market contracts.

LIVE · 67 COUNTRIES · 6 REGIONS · as of Sep 11, 03:45 UTC
17.0
PMIWhat PMI meansPMI is the index's own 0–100 score — NOT the probability of a market's wording. Every contract is oriented to the index's theme, so a “below / no / peace” market shows a HIGH PMI when that outcome is unlikely. 100 = markets fully back the index's direction, 50 = balanced, 0 = the opposite.
CalmConflict
318
Component Contracts
3ManifoldMetaculusPolymarket
Prediction Market Exchanges
67
Countries Scored
World conflict map

Prediction Market Indexes

PMIs aggregate & structure related prediction market contracts into one index. PMIs are powered by more data, resulting in stronger predictive power. Micah PMIs account for many variables, such as volume and relevancy.

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41.0PMI

Middle East Conflict Index

Region

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict across Middle East, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

ManifoldMetaculusPolymarket$612.6k 24h vol
19.5PMI

Americas Conflict Index

Region

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict across Americas, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

ManifoldMetaculusPolymarket$666.5k 24h vol
17.5PMI

Asia Conflict Index

Region

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict across Asia, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

ManifoldMetaculusPolymarket$54.1k 24h vol
11.5PMI

Africa Conflict Index

Region

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict across Africa, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

ManifoldMetaculusPolymarket$1.5k 24h vol
10.8PMI

Europe Conflict Index

Region

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict across Europe, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

ManifoldMetaculusPolymarket$157.4k 24h vol
8.8PMI

Oceania Conflict Index

Region

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict across Oceania, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

ManifoldMetaculus$479 24h vol
93.0PMI

Jordan Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Jordan, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
Polymarket1 Contracts
88.3PMI

Sudan Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Sudan, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

africa
MetaculusPolymarket2 Contracts
75.4PMI

Myanmar Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Myanmar, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

asia
Manifold1 Contracts
71.3PMI

Lebanon Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Lebanon, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
Polymarket3 Contracts
69.0PMI

United Arab Emirates Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in United Arab Emirates, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
Polymarket1 Contracts
67.7PMI

Bahrain Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Bahrain, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
Polymarket2 Contracts
67.1PMI

Saudi Arabia Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Saudi Arabia, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
MetaculusPolymarket4 Contracts
57.5PMI

Guyana Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Guyana, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

americas
Metaculus2 Contracts
56.2PMI

Ukraine Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Ukraine, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
ManifoldMetaculusPolymarket44 Contracts
47.4PMI

Cambodia Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Cambodia, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

asia
Manifold1 Contracts
47.4PMI

Thailand Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Thailand, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

asia
Manifold1 Contracts
44.2PMI

Venezuela Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Venezuela, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

americas
ManifoldMetaculus7 Contracts
39.8PMI

Iran Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Iran, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
ManifoldMetaculusPolymarket74 Contracts
39.0PMI

Russia Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Russia, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
ManifoldMetaculusPolymarket59 Contracts
38.1PMI

Israel Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Israel, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
ManifoldMetaculusPolymarket32 Contracts
33.8PMI

Gaza Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Gaza, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
Polymarket3 Contracts
33.0PMI

Yemen Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Yemen, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
Polymarket6 Contracts
31.9PMI

Kyrgyzstan Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Kyrgyzstan, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

asia
Metaculus1 Contracts
31.9PMI

Tajikistan Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Tajikistan, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

asia
Metaculus1 Contracts
31.8PMI

Taiwan Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Taiwan, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

asia
ManifoldMetaculusPolymarket19 Contracts
31.1PMI

Nigeria Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Nigeria, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

africa
Metaculus2 Contracts
30.0PMI

Algeria Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Algeria, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

africa
Metaculus1 Contracts
30.0PMI

Morocco Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Morocco, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

africa
Metaculus1 Contracts
27.2PMI

Kuwait Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Kuwait, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
Polymarket2 Contracts
25.6PMI

United States Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in United States, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

americas
ManifoldMetaculusPolymarket112 Contracts
25.0PMI

Philippines Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Philippines, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

asia
MetaculusPolymarket3 Contracts
24.6PMI

Ethiopia Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Ethiopia, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

africa
ManifoldMetaculus3 Contracts
24.3PMI

Qatar Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Qatar, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
Polymarket1 Contracts
23.7PMI

China Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in China, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

asia
ManifoldMetaculusPolymarket39 Contracts
22.8PMI

Afghanistan Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Afghanistan, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

asia
Metaculus2 Contracts
22.7PMI

Syria Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Syria, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
ManifoldPolymarket5 Contracts
20.0PMI

Azerbaijan Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Azerbaijan, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
Metaculus1 Contracts
19.8PMI

Japan Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Japan, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

asia
ManifoldMetaculusPolymarket6 Contracts
19.8PMI

Eritrea Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Eritrea, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

africa
Manifold2 Contracts
17.9PMI

Brazil Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Brazil, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

americas
ManifoldMetaculus3 Contracts
17.1PMI

West Bank Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in West Bank, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
Manifold1 Contracts
17.0PMI

Mali Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Mali, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

africa
Polymarket1 Contracts
15.8PMI

Turkey Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Turkey, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
ManifoldMetaculusPolymarket5 Contracts
14.8PMI

United Kingdom Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in United Kingdom, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
ManifoldMetaculusPolymarket3 Contracts
13.3PMI

Pakistan Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Pakistan, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

asia
MetaculusPolymarket4 Contracts
13.2PMI

Oman Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Oman, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
ManifoldMetaculusPolymarket6 Contracts
13.0PMI

Cuba Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Cuba, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

americas
ManifoldMetaculusPolymarket6 Contracts
12.0PMI

Vietnam Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Vietnam, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

asia
Metaculus1 Contracts
12.0PMI

Solomon Islands Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Solomon Islands, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

oceania
Metaculus1 Contracts
11.5PMI

Australia Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Australia, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

oceania
Manifold1 Contracts
11.2PMI

Panama Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Panama, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

americas
Manifold2 Contracts
10.9PMI

France Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in France, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
MetaculusPolymarket2 Contracts
10.4PMI

Egypt Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Egypt, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
MetaculusPolymarket3 Contracts
10.3PMI

Greenland Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Greenland, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
ManifoldPolymarket4 Contracts
9.6PMI

Canada Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Canada, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

americas
ManifoldPolymarket4 Contracts
9.2PMI

Mexico Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Mexico, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

americas
ManifoldMetaculusPolymarket6 Contracts
9.1PMI

Iraq Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Iraq, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

middle-east
ManifoldPolymarket3 Contracts
8.3PMI

South Korea Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in South Korea, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

asia
ManifoldMetaculusPolymarket3 Contracts
8.0PMI

Germany Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Germany, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
Manifold1 Contracts
7.8PMI

India Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in India, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

asia
ManifoldMetaculusPolymarket5 Contracts
6.8PMI

Bangladesh Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Bangladesh, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

asia
Manifold1 Contracts
5.3PMI

Greece Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Greece, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
ManifoldMetaculusPolymarket4 Contracts
5.2PMI

Denmark Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Denmark, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
Manifold1 Contracts
4.6PMI

Poland Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Poland, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
Manifold1 Contracts
4.6PMI

Belarus Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Belarus, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
Manifold1 Contracts
3.6PMI

North Korea Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in North Korea, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

asia
Polymarket1 Contracts
3.4PMI

Estonia Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Estonia, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
Manifold2 Contracts
2.1PMI

Colombia Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Colombia, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

americas
MetaculusPolymarket2 Contracts
2.0PMI

Cyprus Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Cyprus, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
Metaculus1 Contracts
1.0PMI

Armenia Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Armenia, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
Manifold1 Contracts
1.0PMI

Georgia Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Georgia, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
Manifold1 Contracts
1.0PMI

Bulgaria Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Bulgaria, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
Manifold1 Contracts