Micah Insights
A weekly read of what moved across the indexes, with the contracts behind each move.
10.3 points separate the House and the Governor.
The House index reads 50.4 and the Governor 40.2, 10.3 points apart (mid-range; over 5 weeks on record the gap has run 8.1–11.7). The largest 7-day move among the chambers was the Governor, at −1.3.
How it’s computed: each week, the highest chamber index minus the lowest. Index levels on a 0–100 scale, not the probability of any single outcome. How a reading is built
The widest gap this week: 1.6 points on the same question.
The same question, listed on two exchanges, at two prices. 1 pair printed from 2 cross-venue markets; a pair prints only when the gap on the mid is wide enough to be disagreement, not book depth.
19 contracts a tracked index owns settle in the next seven days.
Contracts converge to 0 or 100 as they settle, so a big move here is the calendar, not the book changing its mind. These are not picks and they are not ranked.
Show 13 more settling by Nov 3
The reading is Micah’s cross-exchange price for the contract. Titles open the contract on its exchange; the index name opens its page here.
Where each index sits in its own range
One line each, as of Oct 27, 2026. The dot is the reading between its own low and high over the lookback.
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The week’s spread, the exchange gaps and what settles next. Readings only; unsubscribe anytime.
The archive
The last two issues are open to everyone. Older ones are free with an account.
Past issues are kept as published, numbers and all.