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2026 Balance of Power Index
Which party will hold the Senate, the House and the governorships after November 3, as prediction markets price it. Each number is the chance Republicans win control.
Democrats are favored to control the House.
Chance of controlling the House
Democrats
81%
Republicans
19%INDEX
218 = MAJORITY
192
Exp. GOP seats
218
Needed
26
GOP short by
435 seats · as of Oct 27, 15:51 UTC
Every House seat up in 2026
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SEAT · HELD BY · PROJECTIONPMI14DVOL
NH-02 ›New Hampshire · held D · Toss-up47.8+43.4$1KMI-04 ›Michigan · held R · Toss-up46.5−5.5$14KKY-06 ›Kentucky · held R · Toss-up53.6−14.2$11KME-02 ›Maine · held D · Toss-up54.9−8.2$1KWI-01 ›Wisconsin · held R · Toss-up55.0−8.9$2KMT-01 ›Montana · held R · Toss-up55.4−15.0$3KPA-01 ›Pennsylvania · held R · Toss-up55.5−7.0$14KNY-21 ›New York · held R · Toss-up56.0−17.5$13KTX-23 ›Texas · held R · Toss-up57.1−8.1$37KNY-17 ›New York · held R · Toss-up41.9+2.0$16KCO-05 ›Colorado · held R · Toss-up59.9−14.6$44KNV-02 ›Nevada · held R · Lean R60.0−11.0$13KSC-01 ›South Carolina · held R · Lean R61.3−9.2$982VA-01 ›Virginia · held R · Lean D38.1−7.8$12KMN-01 ›Minnesota · held R · Lean R62.7−13.4$13KFL-22 ›Florida · held D · Lean D37.1−8.4$2KNC-13 ›North Carolina · held R · Lean R63.0−21.6$116KMO-02 ›Missouri · held R · Lean R63.4−13.6$1KOH-15 ›Ohio · held R · Lean R63.6−11.3$640NC-03 ›North Carolina · held R · Lean R64.5−18.0$136KVA-05 ›Virginia · held R · Lean R65.4−11.1$30KCO-03 ›Colorado · held R · Lean R65.9−5.6$1KFL-14 ›Florida · held D · Lean D34.0+3.1$1KMI-10 ›Michigan · held R · Lean D33.4−1.6$159FL-27 ›Florida · held R · Lean R67.0+2.8$5KCO-04 ›Colorado · held R · Lean R67.3−4.7$5KAL-02 ›Alabama · held D · Lean R67.7−4.4$1KAZ-02 ›Arizona · held R · Lean R68.3+1.8$4KTX-35 ›Texas · held D · Lean D31.6−8.5$10KIA-02 ›Iowa · held R · Lean D30.0−12.5$3KFL-09 ›Florida · held D · Lean R70.1−0.4$1KNJ-02 ›New Jersey · held R · Lean R70.6−11.4$112KFL-13 ›Florida · held R · Lean R71.0−3.0$5KOH-10 ›Ohio · held R · Lean R71.5−12.9$1KNC-09 ›North Carolina · held R · Lean R71.7−10.0$49KMI-07 ›Michigan · held R · Lean D28.0−10.1$2KFL-07 ›Florida · held R · Lean R74.8+8.6$6KPMI is the chance Republicans win the seat, 0–100. 14D is the change over two weeks. Tap any seat for its contracts.
Seat counts are what markets project across 6 exchanges (ForecastEx, Gemini, Kalshi, Polymarket, IBKR, Manifold). Methodology