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2026 Balance of Power Index
Which party will hold the Senate, the House and the governorships after November 3, as prediction markets price it. Each number is the chance Republicans win control.
Democrats are slight favorites to control the Senate.
Chance of controlling the Senate
Democrats
62%
Republicans
38%INDEX
51 = MAJORITY · GOP CONTROLS AT 50
48.4
Exp. GOP seats ±4
35
On the ballot
1
Toss-up
DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RR
Gray states have no Senate race in 2026✦ ASK ABOUT THIS INDEX
Path to a majority · most likely wins first
Democrats need 4 of these 7
Most traded seats · 24h
Where the money is
35 seats on the ballot
Every Senate seat up in 2026
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SEAT · HELD BY · PROJECTIONPMI14DVOL
Iowa ›IA · held R · Toss-up58.7+0.3$108KKansas ›KS · held R · Lean R60.3−2.2$156KMaine ›ME · held R · Lean D39.1−2.8$364KTexas ›TX · held R · Lean D34.3−1.2$2.2MOhio ›OH · held R · Lean D32.2−8.2$160KMichigan ›MI · held D · Lean D31.4−0.5$538KAlaska ›AK · held R · Lean D27.8+0.9$404KPMI is the chance Republicans win the seat, 0–100. 14D is the change over two weeks. Tap any seat for its contracts.
Seat counts are what markets project across 8 exchanges. Methodology