++++
7 Contracts$54 24h vol8 Contracts$312 24h vol8 Contracts$47 24h vol9 Contracts$336 24h vol7 Contracts$12 24h vol8 Contracts$116 24h vol8 Contracts$11 24h vol8 Contracts$213 24h vol10 Contracts$517 24h vol8 Contracts$269 24h vol8 Contracts$1.8k 24h vol8 Contracts$2.1k 24h vol6 Contracts$20.0k 24h vol7 Contracts$24.3k 24h vol8 Contracts$10.7k 24h vol21 Contracts$49.8k 24h vol7 Contracts$109.9k 24h vol10 Contracts$12.8k 24h vol11 Contracts$113.0k 24h vol8 Contracts$195.6k 24h vol4 Contracts$60.3k 24h vol20 Contracts$7.2k 24h vol7 Contracts$13.4k 24h vol8 Contracts$28.9k 24h vol8 Contracts$13.8k 24h vol8 Contracts$3.5k 24h vol7 Contracts$0 24h vol8 Contracts$50 24h vol8 Contracts$55 24h vol7 Contracts$408 24h vol8 Contracts$427 24h vol7 Contracts$318 24h vol8 Contracts$0 24h vol7 Contracts$582 24h vol8 Contracts$36 24h vol
2026 Balance of Power Index
Who holds Washington after the 2026 midterms. The Senate, the House and the governorships are each priced from individual race markets, then composited into a seat distribution measured against that body's majority threshold.
US Senate
35 seats are on the 2026 ballot and 65 are held over. Race markets composite into a seat distribution measured against the 51-seat majority threshold.
LIVE · 35 CONTESTED · 51 TO CONTROL · E[GOP seats] 50.0 ± 4.2
100
Total Seats
35
Contested Races
65
Holdover Seats
4
Prediction Market Exchanges
35
Race PMIs
59.4%
GOP Control Probability
40.6%
Dem Control Probability
Full chamber — all 100 seats. The Safe bands fold in 65 seats held over from earlier cycles (not on the 2026 ballot); only the 35 contested seats appear in Race PMIs below.
P(GOP wins) by state · 35 contested · greyed = not on 2026 ballot
NORTHEAST CORRIDOR
VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC
PMI Heat Scale · 0 → 100
Leaning DemocratLeaning Republican
0255075100
Race PMIs
35 seats up in 2026 · 65 held over (not shown)
Each contested seat is a single-factor PMI aggregating contracts across every prediction-market exchange that lists it. Click a race to drill into its state page.
🔍
97.8PMI
South Dakota senate 2026
Senate7 Contracts$54 24h vol97.4PMI
Idaho senate 2026
Senate8 Contracts$312 24h vol97.1PMI
Wyoming senate 2026
Senate8 Contracts$47 24h vol96.6PMI
West Virginia senate 2026
Senate9 Contracts$336 24h vol96.4PMI
Oklahoma senate 2026
Senate7 Contracts$12 24h vol96.2PMI
Tennessee senate 2026
Senate8 Contracts$116 24h vol96.0PMI
Alabama senate 2026
Senate8 Contracts$11 24h vol95.9PMI
Kentucky senate 2026
Senate8 Contracts$213 24h vol95.0PMI
Montana senate 2026
Senate10 Contracts$517 24h vol93.7PMI
Louisiana senate 2026
Senate8 Contracts$269 24h vol93.5PMI
Mississippi senate 2026
Senate8 Contracts$1.8k 24h vol93.4PMI
Arkansas senate 2026
Senate8 Contracts$2.1k 24h vol91.3PMI
Florida senate 2026
Senate6 Contracts$20.0k 24h vol84.8PMI
Nebraska senate 2026
Senate7 Contracts$24.3k 24h vol83.7PMI
South Carolina senate 2026
Senate8 Contracts$10.7k 24h vol80.5PMI
Maine senate 2026
Senate21 Contracts$49.8k 24h vol79.6PMI
Kansas senate 2026
Senate7 Contracts$109.9k 24h vol66.1PMI
Iowa senate 2026
Senate10 Contracts$12.8k 24h vol59.4PMI
Michigan senate 2026
Senate11 Contracts$113.0k 24h vol50.2PMI
Texas senate 2026
Senate8 Contracts$195.6k 24h vol47.7PMI
Ohio senate 2026
Senate4 Contracts$60.3k 24h vol39.5PMI
Alaska senate 2026
Senate20 Contracts$7.2k 24h vol17.6PMI
New Hampshire senate 2026
Senate7 Contracts$13.4k 24h vol9.3PMI
Minnesota senate 2026
Senate8 Contracts$28.9k 24h vol8.7PMI
North Carolina senate 2026
Senate8 Contracts$13.8k 24h vol7.1PMI
Georgia senate 2026
Senate8 Contracts$3.5k 24h vol5.0PMI
Virginia senate 2026
Senate7 Contracts$0 24h vol3.8PMI
Illinois senate 2026
Senate8 Contracts$50 24h vol3.7PMI
Colorado senate 2026
Senate8 Contracts$55 24h vol3.1PMI
Massachusetts senate 2026
Senate7 Contracts$408 24h vol2.9PMI
New Jersey senate 2026
Senate8 Contracts$427 24h vol2.5PMI
New Mexico senate 2026
Senate7 Contracts$318 24h vol2.5PMI
Delaware senate 2026
Senate8 Contracts$0 24h vol2.2PMI
Rhode Island senate 2026
Senate7 Contracts$582 24h vol1.4PMI
Oregon senate 2026
Senate8 Contracts$36 24h vol