290 QUESTIONS · 4 EXCHANGES · BY 24H VOLUME
Every contract behind the index
The price is the market's chance it happens, from the exchange quoting it.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?95%Polymarket · $165.9k / 24h
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?91%Polymarket · $104.6k / 24h
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?53%Polymarket · $74.5k / 24h
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?15%Polymarket · $27.5k / 24h
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?45%Polymarket · $27.1k / 24h
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?4%Polymarket · $20.7k / 24h
US government uses live ammunition on protestors before end of presidential term?31%Manifold · $13.4k / 24h
us nukes Iran in 20263%Manifold · $10.2k / 24h
US confirms use of nuclear earth-penetrating weapon in combat by end of 2028?5%Manifold · $9.9k / 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31?9%Polymarket · $6.7k / 24h
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?98%Polymarket · $6.3k / 24h
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?12%Polymarket · $6.0k / 24h
US and Mexico engage in armed conflict before January 20, 202913%Manifold · $4.7k / 24h
If Russia doesn’t agree to the ceasefire, will America provide more assistance to Ukraines war efforts within 90 days? 43%Manifold · $4.1k / 24h
Russia attacks a NATO member before 2031?46%Manifold · $3.6k / 24h
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?95%Polymarket · $2.1k / 24h
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?4%Polymarket · $2.0k / 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?19%Polymarket · $1.3k / 24h
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by December 31, 2026?12%Polymarket · $862 / 24h
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 27?72%Polymarket · $610 / 24h
Will ballistic missile with range over 500km launched from Ukraine hit any target in Russia in 2026?43%Manifold · $561 / 24h
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?9%Polymarket · $500 / 24h
Ukraine damages Kremlin with drone or missile before Russia-Ukraine war ends?25%Manifold · $465 / 24h
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by November 30?31%Polymarket · $423 / 24h
NATO country shoots down Israeli aircraft, missile, or drone before 2031?44%Manifold · $393 / 24h
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by November 15, 2026?47%Polymarket · $363 / 24h
Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by December 31, 2026?16%Polymarket · $260 / 24h
Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026?15%Polymarket · $209 / 24h
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by November 30, 2026?43%Polymarket · $176 / 24h
Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?11%Polymarket · $172 / 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?27%Polymarket · $162 / 24h
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?5%Polymarket · $162 / 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire ends before Netanyahu out?50%Polymarket · $162 / 24h
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?6%Polymarket · $161 / 24h
Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by November 30?44%Polymarket · $160 / 24h
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force? [Metaculus]66%Manifold · $120 / 24h
Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 31, 2026?71%Polymarket · $116 / 24h
Israel military action against Syria by November 30, 2026?28%Polymarket · $80 / 24h
Will Iran target Bahrain by October 31, 2026?11%Polymarket · $77 / 24h
Will Iran target Kuwait by October 31, 2026?9%Polymarket · $68 / 24h
US strike on Colombia by December 31?21%Polymarket · $66 / 24h
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?9%Polymarket · $64 / 24h
Will Iran target Iraq by November 15, 2026?89%Polymarket · $50 / 24h
Will Ethiopia target Eritrea by December 31, 2026?32%Polymarket · $50 / 24h
Houthis enter Aden by November 30, 2026?10%Polymarket · $50 / 24h
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2026?19%Polymarket · $41 / 24h
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?14%Polymarket · $4 / 24h
Iran invades Kuwait by December 31?4%Polymarket · $0 / 24h
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 28?97%Polymarket · $0 / 24h
NATO downs another Russian drone by November 30?70%Polymarket · $0 / 24h
Israel military action against Yemen by December 31?28%Polymarket · $0 / 24h
Will a European country take military action on Iran by December 31?7%Polymarket · $0 / 24h
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by October 31?5%Polymarket · $0 / 24h
US strike on Mexico by December 31?4%Polymarket · $0 / 24h
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 31, 2026?91%Polymarket · $0 / 24h
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?5%Polymarket · $0 / 24h
Will Iran target an Arab country by November 15, 2026?83%Polymarket · $0 / 24h
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 31, 2026?75%Polymarket · $0 / 24h
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026?15%Polymarket · $0 / 24h
Greece x Turkey military engagement by December 31?10%Polymarket · $0 / 24h
36 contracts count toward today's reading. The 60 most relevant of 290 questions, busiest first.
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