CO-08 House 2026

The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Republicans · projected flip to Dem·$587 traded / 24h·12 contracts·5 exchanges·Margin rank 67 of 435
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
15.2Likely D · ▲ 1.0 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
15.2
enters as 15.2
Democrats win
84.8
enters as 100 − 84.8 = 15.2

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Control of the House

Does CO-08 decide the House?

No. It is rated Likely D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Full House picture
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 12

Sorted by weight

Will the Democratic Party win the CO-08 House seat?85.0Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 15.0weight 75.4%Will the Republican Party win the CO-08 House seat?14.5Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 14.5weight 18.5%Will Republican win the House race for CO-8? - Gabe Evans16.0Kalshi ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 16.0weight 3.4%Will Democratic win the House race for CO-8? - Manny Rutinel85.0Kalshi ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 15.0weight 2.6%CO-08 General Election — Gabe Evans19.5IBKR ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 80.5weight 0.0%CO-08 General Election — Manny Rutinel80.5IBKR ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 19.5weight 0.0%
Show all 12 contracts
Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 15.2 · rows open on the exchange
Other Colorado races this cycle

Also on the ballot