GA-12 House 2026

The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Republicans · projected hold·$556 traded / 24h·12 contracts·5 exchanges·Margin rank 65 of 435
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
84.5Likely R · ▼ 6.0 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
84.5
enters as 84.5
Democrats win
15.5
enters as 100 − 15.5 = 84.5

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Control of the House

Does GA-12 decide the House?

No. It is rated Likely R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Full House picture
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 12

Sorted by weight

Will the Republican Party win the GA-12 House seat?84.5Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 84.5weight 39.6%Will the Democratic Party win the GA-12 House seat?15.5Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 84.5weight 39.6%Will Democratic win the House race for GA-12? - Ceretta Smith16.0Kalshi ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 84.0weight 20.5%Will Republican win the House race for GA-12? - Rick Allen85.0Kalshi ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 85.0weight 0.4%Georgia-12 House Winner - Ceretta Smith17.0Gemini ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 83.0weight 0.0%Georgia-12 House Winner - Rick Allen87.0Gemini ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 87.0weight 0.0%
Show all 12 contracts
Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 84.5 · rows open on the exchange
Other Georgia races this cycle

Also on the ballot