IL-16 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
96.3
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
96.3enters as 96.3
Democrats win
3.8enters as 100 − 3.8 = 96.3
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does IL-16 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 8
Sorted by weight
Will the Republican Party win the IL-16 House seat?95.7Will the Democratic Party win the IL-16 House seat?3.2IL-16 General Election — Paul Nolley8.0IL-16 General Election — Darin LaHood91.0Will Democratic win the House race for IL-16? - Paul Nolley2.6Will Republican win the House race for IL-16? - Darin LaHood96.3
Show all 8 contracts
Will Darin LaHood win the Illinois 16th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?91.0Will Paul Nolley win the Illinois 16th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?8.0
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 96.3 · rows open on the exchange
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