LA-04 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
96.1
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
96.1enters as 96.1
Democrats win
3.9enters as 100 − 3.9 = 96.1
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does LA-04 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 39 contested seats.
Democrats already have 224 seats rated safe or likely, 6 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 8
Sorted by weight
Will the Republican Party win the LA-04 House seat?96.0Will the Democratic Party win the LA-04 House seat?3.5LA-04 General Election — Conrad Cable6.0LA-04 General Election — Mike Johnson88.0Will Democratic win the House race for LA-04? - Democratic party5.2Will Republican win the House race for LA-04? - Republican party96.3
Show all 8 contracts
Will Mike Johnson win the Louisiana 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?88.0Will Conrad Cable win the Louisiana 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?6.0
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 96.1 · rows open on the exchange
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