MO-06 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
93.2
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
93.2enters as 93.2
Democrats win
6.8enters as 100 − 6.8 = 93.2
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does MO-06 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 10
Sorted by weight
Will Democratic win the House race for MO-06? - Josh Smead7.0Will Republican win the House race for MO-06? - Chris Stigall93.0Will the Democratic Party win the MO-06 House seat?4.5MO-06 General Election — Sam Graves2.5MO-06 General Election — Josh Smead4.0MO-06 General Election — Matthew Levine4.0
Show all 10 contracts
MO-06 General Election — Chris Stigall95.0Will Matthew Levine win the Missouri 6th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?11.0Will Sam Graves win the Missouri 6th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?8.0Will the Republican Party win the MO-06 House seat?95.5
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 93.2 · rows open on the exchange