NJ-08 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
1.4
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
1.4enters as 1.4
Democrats win
98.5enters as 100 − 98.5 = 1.4
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does NJ-08 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 7
Sorted by weight
Will Republican win the House race for NJ-08? - Republican party1.3Will Democratic win the House race for NJ-08? - Rob Menendez98.7Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-08 House seat?96.9NJ-08 General Election — Rob Menendez91.0Will Marcos Arroyo win the New Jersey 8th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?11.0Will Rob Menendez win the New Jersey 8th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?91.0
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 1.4 · rows open on the exchange
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