NY-12 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
1.8
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
1.8enters as 1.8
Democrats win
98.2enters as 100 − 98.2 = 1.8
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does NY-12 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 38 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 6
Sorted by weight
Will Republican win the House race for NY-12? - Caroline Shinkle2.0Will Democratic win the House race for NY-12? - Micah Lasher98.4Will the Democratic Party win the NY-12 House seat?97.5NY-12 General Election — Caroline Shinkle4.0NY-12 General Election — Micah Lasher95.0Will the Republican Party win the NY-12 House seat?0.7
Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 1.8 · rows open on the exchange
Other New York races this cycle