New York Governor 2026

The chance this race goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Democrats · projected hold·$181K traded / 24h·14 contracts·7 exchanges·Margin rank 20 of 36
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
5.6Safe D · ▲ 0.3 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
5.6
enters as 5.6
Democrats win
94.4
enters as 100 − 94.4 = 5.6

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Other 2026 races

Also on the ballot in New York

Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 14

Sorted by weight

Will the Republican party win the governorship in New York - Bruce Blakeman5.8Kalshi ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 5.8weight 67.9%Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?10.5Manifold ◦ ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 89.5weight 16.3%Will the Democratic party win the governorship in New York - Kathy Hochul94.3Kalshi ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 5.7weight 10.6%Will Bruce Blakeman be elected governor of New York in 20265.4Manifold ◦ ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 5.4weight 1.8%Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?4.5Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 4.6weight 1.7%Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?95.5Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 4.6weight 1.5%
Show all 14 contracts
Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 5.6 · ◦ play money · rows open on the exchange
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