VA-03 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
2.8
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
2.8enters as 2.8
Democrats win
97.2enters as 100 − 97.2 = 2.8
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does VA-03 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 7
Sorted by weight
Will Democratic win the House race for VA-03? - Bobby Scott97.9VA-03 General Election — Edwin Rivera4.0VA-03 General Election — Bobby Scott91.0Will Republican win the House race for VA-03? - Edwin Rivera3.5Will Bobby Scott win the Virginia 3rd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?92.0Will the Republican Party win the VA-03 House seat?3.0
Show all 7 contracts
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 2.8 · rows open on the exchange
Other Virginia races this cycle