VA-04 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
4.5
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
4.5enters as 4.5
Democrats win
95.5enters as 100 − 95.5 = 4.5
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does VA-04 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 7
Sorted by weight
VA-04 General Election — Robert Murray5.0VA-04 General Election — Jennifer McClellan91.0Will Democratic win the House race for VA-04? - Jennifer McClellan98.0Will Republican win the House race for VA-04? - Robert Murray2.9Will Jennifer McClellan win the Virginia 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?92.0Will the Republican Party win the VA-04 House seat?1.8
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 4.5 · rows open on the exchange
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