1 · GLOBAL WAR INDEX
One war contract rose 38 points. The Global War Index fell 0.4 to 9.1.
“WILL UKRAINE TARGET MOSCOW ON OCTOBER 27, 2026”▲ 38 PTS
99%from 61% yesterday
✦ MICAH BRIEF · TUE, OCT 27 · 15:47 UTC
Today’s brief, explained
The biggest moves since yesterday, and where risk sits now. Each part shows the contracts behind it and what it means for its index.
2 · 2026 BALANCE OF POWER · HOUSE
One House contract rose 12 points. House control fell 0.5 to 19%.
“WILL DEMOCRATIC WIN THE HOUSE RACE FOR NJ-04? -…”▲ 12 PTS
20%from 8% yesterday
Across every exchange, Republicans read 19% for House control (down 0.5 today).
3 · 2026 BALANCE OF POWER · SENATE
One Senate contract fell 6.0 points. Senate control fell 1.0 to 38%.
“WILL DARLINE GRAHAM RUN FOR AND WIN LINDSEY GRA…”▼ 6.0 PTS
75%from 81% yesterday
Across every exchange, Republicans read 38% for Senate control (down 1.0 today).
4 · GLOBAL WAR INDEX · WHERE RISK SITS
The world reads a calm 9.1, but risk is concentrated.
Gaza 93.0, Ukraine 75.5 and Saudi Arabia 60.8 read highest. Most of the 36 priced countries sit under 20, and the index weights each by economic and population size, so a few hot spots barely lift the world number.
SYNTHESIZED FROM
24h contract movesGlobal War IndexHouse IndexSenate Index
Not investment advice.