US and Canada engage in armed conflict before January 1, 2029
One question, with every dated and reworded contract that asks it. Only one exchange lists it today.
LIVE1 CONTRACT·1 EXCHANGE·UNITED STATES
What the market prices
5.7%implied chance this resolves yes
0 · WON’T HAPPEN50100 · CERTAIN
30-day range · Manifold
30d low 5.7 · Sep 2730d high 5.7 · Sep 27
Where the books disagree
One exchange, one price
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