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United States
Market-implied armed-conflict heat for this country, with the contributing prediction-market contracts.
25.5
PMIWhat PMI meansPMI is the index's own 0–100 score — NOT the probability of a market's wording. Every contract is oriented to the index's theme, so a “below / no / peace” market shows a HIGH PMI when that outcome is unlikely. 100 = markets fully back the index's direction, 50 = balanced, 0 = the opposite.
CalmConflict
112
Contracts
3
Prediction Market Exchanges
112
PMI Holdings
PMI Holdings
Exchanges
16.0PMI
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Polymarket
$283.5k
7.8PMI
U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?Manifold
$39.8k
58.0PMI
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
$35.0k
10.2PMI
Will USA use military force to take control over either Greenland, Canada or the Panama Canal before 2029?Manifold
$25.5k
7.0PMI
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Polymarket
$20.4k
97.7PMI
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?Polymarket
$16.7k
84.5PMI
Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?Manifold
$16.0k
30.8PMI
US government uses live ammunition on protestors before end of presidential term?Manifold
$13.4k
67.7PMI
Will there be a separate, second ceasefire in the America / Iran war in 2026?Manifold
$11.8k
10.3PMI
US and Canada engage in armed conflict before January 1, 2029Manifold
$11.6k
2.8PMI
us nukes Iran in 2026Manifold
$10.1k
5.3PMI
US confirms use of nuclear earth-penetrating weapon in combat by end of 2028?Manifold
$9.9k
5.2PMI
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?Manifold
$9.8k
9.0PMI
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
$8.7k
18.8PMI
Will a major terrorist attack with over 100 casualties be committed against the US during Trump's current term?Manifold
$6.1k
31.7PMI
Will the United States conduct a military strike against Cuba in 2026?Manifold
$5.9k
7.9PMI
Will the US suffer 1000 confirmed combat deaths in Iran in 2026?Manifold
$5.7k
12.5PMI
US and Mexico engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029Manifold
$4.7k
8.8PMI
Will the US attack Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections?Manifold
$4.6k
63.2PMI
Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?Manifold
$4.1k
13.0PMI
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Polymarket
$4.1k
43.0PMI
If Russia doesn’t agree to the ceasefire, will America provide more assistance to Ukraines war efforts within 90 days? Manifold
$4.1k
23.0PMI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket]Manifold
$3.6k
7.0PMI
Will America declare war on Iran before the end of 2026Manifold
$3.0k
18.3PMI
Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028?Manifold
$2.8k
12.1PMI
Will the US-Iran war end before the 2026 midterm elections?Manifold
$2.4k
9.3PMI
Will the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?Manifold
$2.3k
30.0PMI
Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?Manifold
$2.1k
61.0PMI
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?Metaculus
$2.0k
88.0PMI
Will Donald Trump order a new U.S. attack on Iran by the end of 2026?Manifold
$1.9k
10.5PMI
Will the US sign a peace agreement based on Iran's 14-point plan before September 30, 2026?Manifold
$1.5k
5.3PMI
Will any Nuclear weapons be used by the US till 2027?Manifold
$1.4k
5.0PMI
Will the United States government detonate a nuclear weapon anywhere in 2026?Manifold
$1.3k
10.2PMI
🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028?Manifold
$1.2k
7.0PMI
Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?Polymarket
$1.2k
3.8PMI
Will the US conduct a targeted strike on a foreign leader on January 3, 2027?Manifold
$1.1k
81.5PMI
Will America lose its war against Iran?Manifold
$1.1k
11.1PMI
U.S. tests/uses nuclear weapon during Trump's presidency?Manifold
$1.1k
31.9PMI
Between Feb 1 2025 and Feb 1 2029 inclusive, will at least 10 US civilians be killed on US soil by enemy action?Manifold
$1.0k
61.0PMI
Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?Manifold
$913
1.3PMI
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?Polymarket
$868
25.1PMI
Contingent on Greenland invasion by USA, China invades Taiwan within 1 year?Manifold
$665
71.0PMI
Will the United States lose the war against Iran?Manifold
$641
8.0PMI
Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026?Manifold
$640
88.4PMI
Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026?Manifold
$617
61.0PMI
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?Polymarket
$598
22.7PMI
US Strike on Mexico by EOY2026?Manifold
$592
75.0PMI
Will the United States attack Venezuela during 2026?Metaculus
$592
22.5PMI
Will the US have 5 consecutive days of active military operations in Venezuela at any point in 2026?Manifold
$501
1.9PMI
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Polymarket
$493
17.7PMI
Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030?Manifold
$492
13.4PMI
Will the US attack a NATO country before Russia does?Manifold
$430
7.0PMI
Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?Metaculus
$430
38.8PMI
Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days?Manifold
$413
11.4PMI
Will Iran launch a fatal terrorist attack on U.S. soil by EOY 2026?Manifold
$385
7.0PMI
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Polymarket
$378
49.0PMI
Will there be a war between the United States and China before 2040?Manifold
$363
87.7PMI
Will the United States cease its military campaign in Syria by 2026?Manifold
$332
4.0PMI
Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?Metaculus
$307
46.0PMI
Will there be a war between the United States and China before 2035?Manifold
$287
18.8PMI
Will BBC News report US preparations for possible nuclear weapon use against Iran before 2028?Manifold
$276
7.8PMI
Will the US bomb Oman by the end of September?Manifold
$272
40.4PMI
Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days?Manifold
$234
14.0PMI
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?Polymarket
$202
9.0PMI
US strike on Mexico by December 31?Polymarket
$188
70.0PMI
If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?Metaculus
$177
8.5PMI
Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?Manifold
$166
23.6PMI
Will there be a war between the United States and China before 2030?Manifold
$159
6.0PMI
Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?Metaculus
$158
1.0PMI
If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?Metaculus
$149
2.3PMI
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
$134
15.0PMI
Will the United States attack Cuba before 2027?Metaculus
$126
13.0PMI
Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?Metaculus
$125
65.6PMI
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force? [Metaculus]Manifold
$120
23.0PMI
Will the US attack European AI/compute providers before 2035?Manifold
$112
5.1PMI
US x China Military clash before 2027?Polymarket
$106
5.0PMI
Will the United States attack Oman before 2027?Metaculus
$101
20.5PMI
Will WMDs be used for an attack on the U.S. by 2036?Manifold
$97
55.0PMI
Will the United States attempt to occupy or blockade Kharg Island during 2026?Metaculus
$96
33.5PMI
Next US nuclear test occurs on US soil?Manifold
$85
30.0PMI
Will Trump bypass the US Congress and declare war on Iran before January 20, 2029?Metaculus
$81
12.0PMI
Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by October 31, 2026?Polymarket
$80
53.8PMI
Will the US or Israel strike Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site before Oct 1, 2027?Manifold
$73
17.5PMI
Will there be a US-China war before 2050?Metaculus
$67
22.0PMI
US announces military base in Israel in 2026?Polymarket
$63
95.0PMI
If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will the United States respond with military forces?Metaculus
$63
4.0PMI
Will the USA invade Mexico and acknowledge that invasion before January 20, 2029?Metaculus
$63
0.8PMI
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?Polymarket
$63
1.0PMI
Will the United States attack Colombia before 2027?Metaculus
$62
20.0PMI
Will the US deploy military forces in Mexico without the cooperation of the Mexican government before 2029?Metaculus
$51
5.6PMI
Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?Metaculus
$48
2.5PMI
Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?Metaculus
$35
29.0PMI
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
$34
20.0PMI
Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?Metaculus
$33
18.0PMI
Will the United States attack Nigeria before 2027?Metaculus
$25
50.0PMI
Will the United States launch another strike against Islamic State in Nigeria before Christmas 2026?Metaculus
$20
49.5PMI
Will the US-Russia proxy conflict expand beyond Ukraine and the Middle East by end of 2027?Manifold
$20
7.0PMI
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? Polymarket
$19
44.0PMI
If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030Manifold
$18
3.0PMI
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?Polymarket
$15
90.0PMI
Will the U.S. reinstate its nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile program before 2030?Metaculus
$12
4.9PMI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
$8
0.7PMI
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by September 30?Polymarket
$5
2.0PMI
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?Polymarket
$4
4.1PMI
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?Polymarket
$2
13.0PMI
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Polymarket
$0
0.2PMI
Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026?Polymarket
$0
10.0PMI
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?Polymarket
$0
9.0PMI
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?Polymarket
$0
5.0PMI
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?Polymarket
$0
2.6PMI
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?Polymarket
$0
3.8PMI
US military draft authorized in 2026?Polymarket
$0