United States
Armed-conflict risk on the United States, priced from live prediction-market contracts and weighted by the money behind each one into a single PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one., which rolls up into Americas and the world reading.
LIVE$298K TRADED / 24H·104 CONTRACTS·3 EXCHANGES·AMERICAS·AS OF OCT 27, 17:57 UTC
12.8Calm risk · 20th of 36 countries
▲ 1.0 24h · ▲ 0.9 7d
▲ 1.0 24h · ▲ 0.9 7d
United States reading · Sep 27 – Oct 27
Sep 27Oct 27
27.330D HIGH
11.230D LOW
▼ 10.030D CHANGE
✦ ASK ABOUT UNITED STATES
Why did United States rise this week?What traders are pricing · top 5 of 104 by volume
The five contracts that move United States
Right-hand figure: share of today’s real-money volume. Rows open on the exchange.
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?18%US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?91%US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?45%Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?6%US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?22%
These 5 are 93% of today's volume. 35 of the 104 trade under $5K a day, so one trade can move them.
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