Will Ethiopia and Eritrea resume armed conflict?
Facing contract: Will there be sustained armed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea by end of December 31, 2026?
One question, with every dated and reworded contract that asks it. 2 contracts on 1 exchange are folded here; the deepest book sets the price.
LIVE2 CONTRACTS·1 EXCHANGE·ERITREA
What the market prices
70%implied chance this resolves yes
0 · WON’T HAPPEN50100 · CERTAIN
30-day range · Manifold
30d low 29.5 · Sep 2730d high 77.0 · Oct 8
Where the books disagree
One exchange, one price
Only Manifold lists this question, so there is no cross-exchange read to compare. If another exchange lists the same question, it joins this page rather than appearing separately.
CONTRACTEXCHANGEYES
Will armed conflict break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea by December 31, 2026? ↗Facing book · Play money · not weighted · Ṁ972 / 24hManifold68%Will there be sustained armed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea by end of December 31, 2026? ↗Play money · not weighted · Ṁ369 / 24hManifold70%Other questions on Eritrea