Eritrea
Armed-conflict risk on Eritrea, priced from live prediction-market contracts and weighted by the money behind each one into a single PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one., which rolls up into Africa and the world reading.
LIVE$50 TRADED / 24H·3 CONTRACTS·2 EXCHANGES·AFRICA·AS OF OCT 27, 17:57 UTC
32.0Simmering risk · 10th of 36 countries · thin book
— 24h · — 7d
— 24h · — 7d
Eritrea reading · Sep 27 – Oct 27
Sep 27Oct 27
65.030D HIGH
19.830D LOW
▲ 12.230D CHANGE
✦ ASK ABOUT ERITREA
What is driving Eritrea's reading?What traders are pricing
The contracts that move Eritrea
Right-hand figure: share of today’s real-money volume. Rows open on the exchange.
Will Ethiopia target Eritrea by December 31, 2026?32%Will armed conflict break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea by December 31, 2026?68%Will there be sustained armed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea by end of December 31, 2026?70%
3 contracts carry all of today's volume. 1 of the 3 trade under $5K a day, so one trade can move them.
OTHER COUNTRIES IN AFRICA
Back to Africa