Will France declare a state of siege by December 31, 2026?
Facing contract: France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?
One question, with every dated and reworded contract that asks it. 3 contracts on 2 exchanges are folded here; the deepest book sets the price.
LIVE$25K TRADED / 24H·3 CONTRACTS·2 EXCHANGES·FRANCE
What the market prices
1.2%implied chance this resolves yes
0 · WON’T HAPPEN50100 · CERTAIN
30-day range · Polymarket
30d low 0.9 · Oct 2630d high 50.0 · Oct 18
Where the books disagree
2 exchanges, 2.6 points apart
The books are 2.6 points apart on this question, inside the usual spread.
CONTRACTEXCHANGEYES
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? ↗Facing book · 70% of the fold · $18K / 24hPolymarket1.2%Will France declare a state of emergency before Nov 1, 2026? ↗21% of the fold · $5K / 24hKalshi2.0%France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026? ↗9% of the fold · $2K / 24hPolymarket3.8%Other questions on France