France
Armed-conflict risk on France, priced from live prediction-market contracts and weighted by the money behind each one into a single PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one., which rolls up into Europe and the world reading.
LIVE$30K TRADED / 24H·5 CONTRACTS·2 EXCHANGES·EUROPE·AS OF OCT 27, 16:57 UTC
4.1Calm risk · 30th of 36 countries
▼ 29.9 24h · ▼ 21.8 7d
▼ 29.9 24h · ▼ 21.8 7d
France reading · Sep 27 – Oct 27
Sep 27Oct 27
36.930D HIGH
0.230D LOW
▲ 3.830D CHANGE
✦ ASK ABOUT FRANCE
Why did France cool this week?What traders are pricing
The five contracts that move France
Right-hand figure: share of today’s real-money volume. Rows open on the exchange.
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?1%Will France declare a state of emergency before Nov 1, 2026?2%France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?4%France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?11%France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?1%
5 contracts carry all of today's volume. 3 of the 5 trade under $5K a day, so one trade can move them.
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