Alaska Governor 2026

The chance this race goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Republicans · projected flip to Dem·$11K traded / 24h·48 contracts·7 exchanges·Margin rank 36 of 36
← Closer · WYSafest race
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
0.6Safe D · ▼ 2.0 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
0.6
enters as 0.6
Democrats win
99.4
enters as 100 − 99.4 = 0.6

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Other 2026 races

Also on the ballot in Alaska

Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 48

Sorted by weight

Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?88.5Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 11.5weight 41.9%Will Democrats win the 2026 Alaskan Governor election?89.1Manifold ◦ ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 10.9weight 32.9%Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?11.0Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 89.0weight 13.0%Will the Republican party win the governorship in Alaska15.0Kalshi ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 15.0weight 12.0%Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Alaska87.0Kalshi ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 13.0weight 0.2%Alaska Governor Winner - Treg Taylor3.0Gemini ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 3.0weight 0.0%
Show all 48 contracts
Alaska Governor Winner - David Bronson3.0Gemini ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 3.0weight 0.0%Alaska Governor Winner - Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins90.0Gemini ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 10.0weight 0.0%Alaska Governor Winner - Bernadette Wilson15.0Gemini ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 15.0weight 0.0%Alaska Governor Winner - Mary Peltola2.0Gemini ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 98.0weight 0.0%Alaska Governor General Election — Dave Bronson8.0IBKR ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 8.0weight 0.0%Alaska Governor General Election — Bernadette Wilson17.5IBKR ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 17.5weight 0.0%Alaska Governor General Election — Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins83.5IBKR ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 16.5weight 0.0%Alaska Governor General Election — Matt Claman50.0IBKR ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 50.0weight 0.0%Alaska Governor General Election — Nancy Dahlstrom50.0IBKR ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 50.0weight 0.0%Who will win the 2026 election for governor of Alaska? - J. Kreiss-Tomkins85.0PredictIt ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 15.0weight 0.0%Who will win the 2026 election for governor of Alaska? - Mary Peltola1.0PredictIt ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 99.0weight 0.0%Who will win the 2026 election for governor of Alaska? - Lisa Murkowski1.0PredictIt ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 1.0weight 0.0%Who will win the 2026 election for governor of Alaska? - Shelley Hughes1.0PredictIt ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 1.0weight 0.0%Who will win the 2026 election for governor of Alaska? - Nancy Dahlstrom1.0PredictIt ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 1.0weight 0.0%Who will win the 2026 election for governor of Alaska? - Click Bishop1.0PredictIt ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 1.0weight 0.0%Who will win the 2026 election for governor of Alaska? - Bernadette Wilson14.0PredictIt ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 14.0weight 0.0%Who will win the 2026 election for governor of Alaska? - Tom Begich1.0PredictIt ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 99.0weight 0.0%Will Tom Begich win the Alaska general election for Governor in 2026?7.0ForecastEx ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 93.0weight 0.0%Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the Alaska general election for Governor in 2026?84.0ForecastEx ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 16.0weight 0.0%Will Shelley Hughes win the Alaska general election for Governor in 2026?46.0ForecastEx ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 46.0weight 0.0%Will Matt Claman win the Alaska general election for Governor in 2026?8.0ForecastEx ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 92.0weight 0.0%Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the Alaska general election for Governor in 2026?56.0ForecastEx ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 56.0weight 0.0%Will Bernadette Wilson win the Alaska general election for Governor in 2026?17.0ForecastEx ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 83.0weight 0.0%Will Click Bishop win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 0.1weight 0.0%Will David Bronson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 0.1weight 0.0%Will Adam Crum win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 0.1weight 0.0%Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 0.1weight 0.0%Will Edna DeVries win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 100.0weight 0.0%Will Matt Heilala win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 100.0weight 0.0%Will Shelley Hughes win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 0.1weight 0.0%Will James Parkin win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 100.0weight 0.0%Will Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 0.1weight 0.0%Will Lisa Murkowski win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 0.1weight 0.0%Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 100.0weight 0.0%Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 100.0weight 0.0%Will Hank Kroll win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 0.1weight 0.0%Will Bruce Walden win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 100.0weight 0.0%Will Matt Claman win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 100.0weight 0.0%Will Lesil McGuire win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 0.1weight 0.0%Will Gregg Brelsford win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 0.1weight 0.0%Will Jessica Faircloth win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 100.0weight 0.0%Will Destry J. Payne Sr. win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 100.0weight 0.0%
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Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 0.6 · ◦ play money · rows open on the exchange
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