Alaska Senate 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
27.4
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
27.4enters as 27.4
Democrats win
72.6enters as 100 − 72.6 = 27.4
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the Senate
Does Alaska decide the Senate?
Not by itself. It is inside the Democrats’ path.
Democrats need 4 of the 7 contested seats; Alaska is priced as their 1st most likely win. The seat that tips control is Texas at 34.3.
MOST LIKELY DEMOCRATICSEAT PMI
Alaska27.4
Michigan31.4Ohio32.1TexasTIPS CONTROL34.3Maine38.2Iowa58.3Kansas60.3MOST LIKELY REPUBLICAN
Democrats need 51 seats, Republicans 50 (the Republican Vice President breaks ties). Democrats count from the top, Republicans from the bottom.
Full Senate pictureContracts behind this reading · 6 of 23
Sorted by weight
Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?26.0Will Republicans win the Senate race in Alaska? - Republican party27.0Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?74.5Will Democratics win the Senate race in Alaska? - Democratic party74.0Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?25.5Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?26.0
Show all 23 contracts
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska general election for US Senate in 2026?71.0Alaska US Senate Winner - Mary Peltola74.0Alaska US Senate Winner - Dan Sullivan27.0Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 US Senate election in Alaska?54.8Sullivan flips Peltola for Alaska Senate by November 2?4.0Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?0.1Will David Leslie win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?0.1Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?0.1Will Dustin Darden win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?0.1Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?0.1Alaska Senate General Election — Dan S. Sullivan29.5Alaska Senate General Election — Mary Peltola70.5Will Ann Diener win the Alaska general election for US Senate in 2026?9.0Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska general election for US Senate in 2026?7.0Will Dan S. Sullivan win the Alaska general election for US Senate in 2026?31.0Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Alaska? - GOP (S. Sullivan)26.0Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Alaska? - Democratic (Peltola)74.0
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Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 27.4 · ◦ play money · rows open on the exchange
Other Alaska races this cycle