AR-03 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
95.8
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
95.8enters as 95.8
Democrats win
4.2enters as 100 − 4.2 = 95.8
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does AR-03 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 8
Sorted by weight
Will the Republican Party win the AR-03 House seat?95.0AR-03 General Election — Robb Ryerse3.0AR-03 General Election — Steve Womack97.0Will Democratic win the House race for AR-03? - Robb Ryerse2.1Will Republican win the House race for AR-03? - Steve Womack96.2Will Steve Womack win the Arkansas 3rd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?97.0
Show all 8 contracts
Will Robb Ryerse win the Arkansas 3rd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?3.0Will the Democratic Party win the AR-03 House seat?3.3
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Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 95.8 · rows open on the exchange
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