Arkansas Senate 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
94.3
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
94.3enters as 94.3
Democrats win
5.7enters as 100 − 5.7 = 94.3
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the Senate
Does Arkansas decide the Senate?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 7 contested seats.
Control turns on the 7 contested seats. The seat that tips control is Texas at 34.2.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 12
Sorted by weight
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Arkansas? - Hallie Shoffner5.9Will Republicans win the Senate race in Arkansas? - Tom Cotton94.5Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?95.3Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?4.8Arkansas Senate General Election — Hallie Shoffner8.0Arkansas Senate General Election — Tom Cotton94.0
Show all 12 contracts
Arkansas US Senate Winner - Hallie Shoffner8.0Arkansas US Senate Winner - Tom Cotton96.0Will Hallie Shoffner win the Arkansas general election for US Senate in 2026?8.0Will Tom Cotton win the Arkansas general election for US Senate in 2026?94.0Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Arkansas? - Democrats (Shoffner)6.0Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Arkansas? - Republican (Cotton)93.0
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 94.3 · rows open on the exchange
Other Arkansas races this cycle