AR-04 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
97.9
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
97.9enters as 97.9
Democrats win
2.1enters as 100 − 2.1 = 97.9
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does AR-04 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 7
Sorted by weight
Will the Democratic Party win the AR-04 House seat?3.5Will the Republican Party win the AR-04 House seat?96.5Will Republican win the House race for AR-04? - Bruce Westerman98.2AR-04 General Election — James Russell3.0AR-04 General Election — Bruce Westerman96.0Will the Republican party win the Arkansas's 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?89.0
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 97.9 · rows open on the exchange
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