AZ-05 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
88.6
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
88.6enters as 88.6
Democrats win
11.4enters as 100 − 11.4 = 88.6
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does AZ-05 decide the House?
No. It is rated Likely R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 7
Sorted by weight
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-05 House seat?89.0Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-05 House seat?11.5Will Republican win the House race for AZ-05? - Mark Lamb90.0AZ-05 General Election — Elizabeth Lee8.0AZ-05 General Election — Mark Lamb90.0Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-05? - Elizabeth Lee13.0
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 88.6 · rows open on the exchange
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