Arizona Governor 2026

The chance this race goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Democrats · projected hold·$125K traded / 24h·13 contracts·7 exchanges·Margin rank 13 of 36
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
9.8Safe D · ▼ 2.8 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
9.8
enters as 9.8
Democrats win
90.2
enters as 100 − 90.2 = 9.8

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Other 2026 races

Also on the ballot in Arizona

Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 13

Sorted by weight

Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?9.5Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 9.5weight 43.8%Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?91.0Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 9.0weight 28.3%Will the Republican party win the governorship in Arizona - Andy Biggs11.0Kalshi ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 11.0weight 23.6%Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Arizona - Katie Hobbs89.0Kalshi ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 11.0weight 4.1%Will Katie Hobbs win reelection for Arizona governor in 2026?92.0Manifold ◦ ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 8.0weight 0.2%Arizona Governor General Election — Andy Biggs15.0IBKR ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 15.0weight 0.0%
Show all 13 contracts
Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 9.8 · ◦ play money · rows open on the exchange
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