AZ-06 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
11.8
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
11.8enters as 11.8
Democrats win
88.2enters as 100 − 88.2 = 11.8
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does AZ-06 decide the House?
No. It is rated Likely D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 10
Sorted by weight
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-06 House seat?11.5Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-6? - JoAnna Mendoza87.0Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-06 House seat?88.5Will Republican win the House race for AZ-6? - Juan Ciscomani12.0Arizona-06 House Winner - Juan Ciscomani14.0Arizona-06 House Winner - JoAnna Mendoza90.0
Show all 10 contracts
AZ-06 General Election — Juan Ciscomani13.5AZ-06 General Election — JoAnna Mendoza86.5Will the Republican party win the Arizona's 6th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?35.0Will the Democratic party win the Arizona's 6th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?66.0
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 11.8 · rows open on the exchange
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