AZ-08 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
88.1
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
88.1enters as 88.1
Democrats win
11.9enters as 100 − 11.9 = 88.1
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does AZ-08 decide the House?
No. It is rated Likely R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 9
Sorted by weight
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-08 House seat?13.0Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-08? - Bernadette Greene-Placentia11.0Will Republican win the House race for AZ-08? - Abe Hamadeh90.0Will the Republican Party win the AZ-08 House seat?87.0Arizona-08 House Winner - Bernadette Greene Placentia15.0Arizona-08 House Winner - Abraham Hamadeh90.0
Show all 9 contracts
AZ-08 General Election — Bernadette Greene-Placentia14.0AZ-08 General Election — Abraham Hamadeh84.0Will Bernadette Greene-Placentia win the Arizona 8th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?14.0
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 88.1 · rows open on the exchange
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