CA-01 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
5.4
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
5.4enters as 5.4
Democrats win
94.6enters as 100 − 94.6 = 5.4
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does CA-01 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 9
Sorted by weight
Will Republican win the House race for CA-01? - James Gallagher5.6Will the Republican Party win the CA-01 House seat?4.2Will the Democratic Party win the CA-01 House seat?95.9California-01 House Winner - James Gallagher6.0California-01 House Winner - Mike McGuire96.0CA-01 General Election — James Gallagher5.0
Show all 9 contracts
CA-01 General Election — Mike McGuire94.0Will Democratic win the House race for CA-01? - Mike McGuire93.8Will the Republican party win the California's 1st District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?13.0
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 5.4 · rows open on the exchange
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