IN-04 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
94.7
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
94.7enters as 94.7
Democrats win
5.3enters as 100 − 5.3 = 94.7
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does IN-04 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 7
Sorted by weight
Will the Republican Party win the IN-04 House seat?95.5Will Democratic win the House race for IN-04? - Drew Cox6.2IN-04 General Election — Drew Cox8.0IN-04 General Election — Jim Baird91.0Will Republican win the House race for IN-04? - Jim Baird95.2Will Jim Baird win the Indiana 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?91.0
Show all 7 contracts
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 94.7 · rows open on the exchange