CA-05 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
92.6
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
92.6enters as 92.6
Democrats win
7.4enters as 100 − 7.4 = 92.6
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does CA-05 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 8
Sorted by weight
Will Democratic win the House race for CA-05? - Michael Masuda7.1CA-05 General Election — Michael Masuda10.0CA-05 General Election — Tom McClintock89.0Will Republican win the House race for CA-05? - Tom McClintock94.1Will Tom McClintock win the California 5th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?89.0Will Michael Masuda win the California 5th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?10.0
Show all 8 contracts
Will the Republican Party win the CA-05 House seat?92.5Will the Democratic Party win the CA-05 House seat?7.4
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 92.6 · rows open on the exchange
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