CA-21 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
6.5
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
6.5enters as 6.5
Democrats win
93.5enters as 100 − 93.5 = 6.5
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does CA-21 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 39 contested seats.
Democrats already have 224 seats rated safe or likely, 6 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 11
Sorted by weight
Will a Democrat win the House race for CA-21? - Jim Costa94.0Will a Republican win the House race for CA-21? - Kyle Kirkland7.1Will the Republican Party win the CA-21 House seat?3.4California-21 House Winner - Kyle Kirkland9.0California-21 House Winner - Jim Costa95.0CA-21 General Election — Lorenzo Rios2.0
Show all 11 contracts
CA-21 General Election — Kyle Kirkland6.0CA-21 General Election — Jim Costa96.0Will Lorenzo Rios win the California 21st District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?14.0Will Jim Costa win the California 21st District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?86.0Will the Democratic Party win the CA-21 House seat?95.6
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 6.5 · rows open on the exchange
Other California races this cycle