HI-02 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
5.2
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
5.2enters as 5.2
Democrats win
94.8enters as 100 − 94.8 = 5.2
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does HI-02 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 10
Sorted by weight
Hawaii-02 House Winner - Brenton Awa6.0Hawaii-02 House Winner - Jill Tokuda99.0HI-02 General Election — Brenton Awa3.0HI-02 General Election — Jill Tokuda97.0Will Democratic win the House race for HI-02? - Jill Tokuda94.0Will Republican win the House race for HI-02? - Brenton Awa4.3
Show all 10 contracts
Will Jill Tokuda win the Hawaii 2nd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?97.0Will Brenton Awa win the Hawaii 2nd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?3.0Will the Republican Party win the HI-02 House seat?3.4Will the Democratic Party win the HI-02 House seat?96.6
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 5.2 · rows open on the exchange
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