PA-09 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
94.7
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
94.7enters as 94.7
Democrats win
5.3enters as 100 − 5.3 = 94.7
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does PA-09 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 8
Sorted by weight
Will the Republican Party win the PA-09 House seat?95.2Will Republican win the House race for PA-09? - Dan Meuser94.7Will Democratic win the House race for PA-09? - Rachel Wallace5.6Will the Democratic Party win the PA-09 House seat?5.0PA-09 General Election — Rachel Wallace7.0PA-09 General Election — Dan Meuser90.0
Show all 8 contracts
Will Rachel Wallace win the Pennsylvania 9th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?7.0Will Dan Meuser win the Pennsylvania 9th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?90.0
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 94.7 · rows open on the exchange
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