ID-02 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
97.5
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
97.5enters as 97.5
Democrats win
2.5enters as 100 − 2.5 = 97.5
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does ID-02 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 11
Sorted by weight
Will Democratic win the House race for ID-02? - Elinor Gilbreath4.0Idaho-02 House Winner - Mike Simpson98.0Idaho-02 House Winner - Elinor "Ellie" Gilbreath5.0ID-02 General Election — Julie Wiley3.0ID-02 General Election — Elinor Gilbreath6.0ID-02 General Election — Mike Simpson93.0
Show all 11 contracts
Will Republican win the House race for ID-02? - Mike Simpson97.5Will Mike Simpson win the Idaho 2nd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?93.0Will Julie Wiley win the Idaho 2nd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?8.0Will the Republican Party win the ID-02 House seat?97.5Will the Democratic Party win the ID-02 House seat?2.4
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 97.5 · rows open on the exchange
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