MN-04 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
2.5
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
2.5enters as 2.5
Democrats win
97.5enters as 100 − 97.5 = 2.5
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does MN-04 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 7
Sorted by weight
MN-04 General Election — Paul Wikstrom4.0MN-04 General Election — Betty McCollum92.0Will Democratic win the House race for MN-04? - Betty McCollum97.5Will Republican win the House race for MN-04? - Paul Wikstrom4.4Will Betty McCollum win the Minnesota 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?89.0Will the Republican Party win the MN-04 House seat?2.3
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 2.5 · rows open on the exchange
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