IL-06 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
3.1
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
3.1enters as 3.1
Democrats win
96.9enters as 100 − 96.9 = 3.1
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does IL-06 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 10
Sorted by weight
Will the Republican Party win the IL-06 House seat?2.5Illinois-06 House Winner - Niki Conforti3.0Illinois-06 House Winner - Sean Casten99.0IL-06 General Election — Niki Conforti5.0IL-06 General Election — Sean Casten91.0Will Democratic win the House race for IL-06? - Sean Casten95.0
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Will Republican win the House race for IL-06? - Niki Conforti5.3Will Sean Casten win the Illinois 6th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?91.0Will Niki Conforti win the Illinois 6th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?5.0Will the Democratic Party win the IL-06 House seat?96.3
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 3.1 · rows open on the exchange
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