IN-08 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
94.9
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
94.9enters as 94.9
Democrats win
5.1enters as 100 − 5.1 = 94.9
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does IN-08 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 8
Sorted by weight
Will the Republican Party win the IN-08 House seat?94.7Will Republican win the House race for IN-08? - Mark Messmer95.3Will Democratic win the House race for IN-08? - Mary Allen6.1Will the Democratic Party win the IN-08 House seat?4.4IN-08 General Election — Mary Allen10.0IN-08 General Election — Mark Messmer90.0
Show all 8 contracts
Will Mark Messmer win the Indiana 8th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?90.0Will Mary Allen win the Indiana 8th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?10.0
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 94.9 · rows open on the exchange