PA-16 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
94.9
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
94.9enters as 94.9
Democrats win
5.1enters as 100 − 5.1 = 94.9
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does PA-16 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 8
Sorted by weight
PA-16 General Election — Justin Wagner9.0PA-16 General Election — Mike Kelly92.0Will Democratic win the House race for PA-16? - Justin Wagner6.8Will Republican win the House race for PA-16? - Mike Kelly94.7Will Justin Wagner win the Pennsylvania 16th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?9.0Will Mike Kelly win the Pennsylvania 16th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?92.0
Show all 8 contracts
Will the Republican Party win the PA-16 House seat?94.8Will the Democratic Party win the PA-16 House seat?4.8
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 94.9 · rows open on the exchange
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